tranfree issue 8 - 15 November 1999

Predicting Seasonal Cycles in the Translation Industry

By Alex Eames

I've had a few people writing to me recently asking about the state of the translation industry. Concerned translators are asking things like "is the translation industry in recession?"

The amount of translation work and enquiries I was getting did drop off quite a bit in September and October. I was not unduly worried about this because I've noticed over the last few years that September is usually a fairly quiet month. Usually October gets busier and November is often frantically busy.

Add to this the fact that the number of translation job adverts in such lists as TJO and Jobs-translators was lower than earlier in the year, and you could possibly start worrying about the state of things in the world of translation. (For more details about these great FREE translation job listing services visit http://www.translation-agencies.com )

Last year I was VERY surprised at how big an impact the Soccer World Cup tournament in France had on the amount of translation work coming in. It was certainly responsible for generating a lot of marketing literature translation work in the run-up to the tournament. But, from the day of the first soccer match the work almost seemed to dry up completely. I was astonished (and even annoyed) that something so 'trivial' as a sports tournament could affect my business. But the harsh reality of it is that these things do have a very real affect on all of our businesses and we would all do very well to learn how to predict these trends.

For one thing, if you are flexible enough, it's a good idea to take your holidays at a time when you know there's likely to be a quiet period. This way you won't lose work or customers and you won't be sitting at home worrying yourself into an early grave because you have no work!

So, for what it's worth, I have two possible explanations for the recent dip in the market (which some clever/lucky translators may not have experienced)...

1. It could have been just a larger than usual seasonal cycle 'September dip', which stretched into October this year.
   
   
2. It could be due to millennium issues. The Information Technology (IT) industry is a major source of translation work, and many businesses are still working on their Year 2000 bug problem solving. Add to this the fact that many large multinational corporations are not buying any new IT equipment until after January 2000. On top of this, many companies could be holding back from major promotional activities or major business expansion plans for similar reasons. I therefore predict that the first quarter of the year 2000 will be manically busy in the translation industry. The first quarter is always busy, but if companies have been holding back this year, Jan-March 2000 will be frantic!

November has started a little better, so it looks as though world-wide recession is probably not the cause. Certainly there seems to be no indication of world-wide recession in the financial press. We also have the Christmas season ahead and that will always be a driver for seasonal cycles in work-flow. I think it's probably responsible for a large part of the usual November rush. People want to clear their desks and get projects finished well in advance of their Christmas holidays. So do not despair if you've had a quiet period. It's a perfect time to work on building your business, whether you do your admin work, complete your accounts and tax return, or extend more effort in marketing yourself to new and existing clients.

Those of you who did not have a quiet period in September and October this year can congratulate yourselves on having got it right - this year at least. Well done!

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